2025-09-12 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Safe-Haven Demand Surges as Rate Cuts Loom

Safe-Haven Demand Surges as Rate Cuts Loom

In the face of persistent global economic uncertainty, gold has once again asserted its role as a premier safe-haven asset. On Tuesday, gold prices soared to a record high of USD 3,675 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of over 35%. The current rally is underpinned by multiple factors: weaker-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data has reinforced expectations of an upcoming Fed rate cut, while intensifying geopolitical tensions have further fueled risk aversion. All eyes are now on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s policy path and gold’s trajectory in the coming weeks.

Gold Technical Analysis

Technically, gold remains in a robust uptrend on the 4-hour chart. Since bottoming out near USD 3,300 in late August, prices have rebounded sharply, surpassing the USD 3,650 mark and setting a new high at USD 3,675. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is accelerating upward, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above 73, suggesting overbought conditions, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) above 54 confirms strong trend momentum. Initial support lies near USD 3,625 (20-day SMA), and as long as prices remain above USD 3,600, further highs remain within reach.

Silver: Still Climbing Within Bullish Channel

Silver remains well supported near USD 41.00 amid a weaker dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Technically, silver continues to consolidate within a rising channel on the daily chart. The 14-day RSI hovers just below 70, indicating near-overbought conditions, while prices remain above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), confirming bullish structure.

Upside targets include a retest of the key USD 41.67 psychological resistance, last seen in September 2011. On the downside, breaking below USD 40.65 (9-day EMA) or USD 40.20 could weaken momentum and invite a deeper correction.

Crypto: Confidence Wavers as Regulations Tighten

Despite increased institutional accumulation in the spot market over recent months, Bitcoin (BTC) has remained confined to a narrow range and has even shown signs of weakening. Futures market activity also indicates waning momentum. Meanwhile, Nasdaq’s announcement to tighten scrutiny on companies with crypto-heavy treasury strategies—such as MicroStrategy—led to sharp declines in their share prices.

While the short-term impact may appear painful, stronger regulatory oversight could ultimately benefit the crypto market by reducing systemic risk and preventing asset bubbles. This period may be seen as a necessary adjustment.

From a technical perspective, the USD 98,000 level remains a critical support zone. If breached, a confidence shakeout among retail investors could trigger broader downside pressure. Traders should closely monitor the interplay between technical signals and evolving regulatory developments. Disclaimer:

This column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial products. Investing involves risk. Readers are advised to assess their personal financial situation carefully and consult independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.