2026-01-09 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Safe-Haven Tensions Persist as Bulls and Bears Battle

Safe-Haven Tensions Persist as Bulls and Bears Battle

As 2026 gets underway, the gold market opened with heightened volatility. On Thursday (January 8), spot gold traded around $4,460/oz in Asia. Earlier this week, gold saw a sharp drop of over 1.7%, briefly dipping to $4,423/oz. While the pullback appeared sudden, it reflects a complex tug-of-war between multiple forces: profit-taking, weak U.S. employment data, escalating geopolitical tensions, and sustained gold accumulation by the People’s Bank of China. Whether this is merely a short-term correction or the start of a renewed uptrend remains to be seen.

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela and lackluster job data have reignited safe-haven demand, providing a potential base for gold to rebound. On the technical front, the 4-hour chart shows the 20-period SMA has shifted to a sideways pattern, sitting below the still-rising 100-period SMA — both around $4,370. Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA continues to climb and is now at $4,267, offering a larger-scale support. Momentum indicators remain in positive territory but have not expanded further, suggesting that buyers are cautious. The RSI has retreated to around 55, consistent with a consolidation phase.

Silver rebounded to about $78.50/oz during Thursday’s Asian session. Ahead of key U.S. economic data — notably the December jobs report due Friday — investors locked in profits. Technical indicators show silver remains heavily overbought. The first key resistance level is $81.44; if broken again, it could target $82.88, followed by the historical high at $85.87. On the downside, failure to hold above $80.00 may trigger further correction, with $77.88 (January 5 high) as the first support, and then $75.00 as the next level to watch.

In the crypto market, the start of 2026 has been relatively calm. Whether this rebound proves fleeting or marks the beginning of a new rally depends on several factors. Chief among them is the U.S. political and regulatory landscape. The long-anticipated crypto market structure bill has now entered Congressional review. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to evaluate its provisions by mid-January — a critical step toward the bill's enactment. Another key factor is whether U.S. equities can remain stable. Although the correlation between crypto and stocks has weakened, a sharp decline in the S&P 500 would likely weigh on all risk assets. Looking back to October 2025’s epic liquidation event, it appears the market has now digested most of that shock.

Disclaimer: This column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Investing involves risk. Readers should carefully assess their personal situation before making any investment decision and seek independent professional advice.