2025-07-04 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Gold Rebounds on Weak ADP Data

Gold Rebounds on Weak ADP Data

Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday (July 2), reaching as high as USD 3,365 per ounce, following weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP employment data. According to the report, private sector employment in the U.S. unexpectedly declined by 33,000 jobs in June—the first negative growth in over two years—significantly below the market forecast of a 95,000-job increase. This surprising data fueled market speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Tuesday that the central bank remains patient on further rate cuts, emphasizing that future decisions will be data-dependent. As a result, all eyes are now on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report to be released Thursday night (July 3), which will offer deeper insight into the health of the U.S. labor market.

From a technical perspective, gold prices successfully reclaimed the key resistance zone between the 50-day Simple Moving Average (USD 3,315–3,325) on Tuesday, and briefly broke above the 21-day SMA at USD 3,350. During Wednesday’s session, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) held near the neutral level at 51, indicating that stronger buying momentum is still required to sustain the recovery from last week’s low of USD 3,255. A firm hold above the 21-day SMA at USD 3,369 would open the door to a retest of the June 23 high at USD 3,397. On the downside, if gold falls below the 50-day SMA at USD 3,320, it may revisit the descending trendline near USD 3,297, with further declines possibly extending to the monthly low of USD 3,255.

As for silver, the easing of geopolitical tensions has allowed prices to remain stable above USD 36.00 for most of the week. With the RSI near 57, the overall trend remains constructive, though the metal is consolidating below multi-year highs. Despite a healthy broader uptrend, a lack of sustained buying above USD 36.50 suggests that a new catalyst may be needed to push prices higher. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average at USD 35.69 aligns closely with the lower boundary of the current ascending channel, offering dynamic support. A break below USD 35.50 could signal a shift in market sentiment, potentially triggering a correction toward USD 34.50 or even USD 33.50.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin has posted a strong two-day rebound and is now holding firm above the USD 105,000 level. While U.S. equities and the Nasdaq have edged closer to new record highs this week, Bitcoin has lagged, suggesting its short-term upward momentum may be slowing. That said, Bitcoin is rapidly becoming a core asset in corporate treasury strategies. In the first half of 2025 alone, publicly listed companies collectively acquired over 200,000 BTC. Combined with ongoing U.S. legislative progress on crypto regulation, rising institutional demand, and growing adoption of stablecoins, the broader crypto environment continues to improve—fueling optimism for the second half of the year. Disclaimer:

The content of this column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Investing involves risks. Readers should carefully evaluate their own circumstances and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.