2025-01-10 Sing Pao's Column (w/English translation)《真金白銀》

Gold Market Overview and AnalysisOn Thursday (January 9), gold prices traded in a narrow range around $2,660 in early trading. On Wednesday (January 8), gold touched a three-week high of $2,670, following the release of the ADP employment report, which showed that the US private sector added only 122,000 jobs in December, falling short of market expectations of 135,000. This led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve might not be too cautious in its rate-cutting approach this year. Market participants are still digesting the impact of the employment data while assessing news about President Trump potentially declaring a national economic emergency due to inflation concerns. Minutes from the Fed's December 17-18 meeting indicated that policymakers see rising inflation risks and are evaluating the impact of Trump's upcoming administration.

From a technical perspective, gold prices have held above the middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart, with bullish MACD and KDJ signals, indicating an upward bias. The key resistance level to watch is $2,686; a breakout above this level could push prices toward the upper Bollinger Band at around $2,700. On the downside, gold has found support at the 100-day moving average of $2,646, with further support at the rising wedge trendline near $2,628. Past tests of this support level have led to significant rebounds; however, a failure to hold could lead to a rapid decline toward $2,608.

Silver Market TrendsSilver prices continue to hold above $30, with investors awaiting Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment rate data. Following a breakout above the 200-day moving average, bullish sentiment is gaining traction. Near-term targets are at $30.55 and $30.80 (50-day moving average), and a break above these levels could trigger a move toward $32.33.

On the downside, a drop below $29.90 could see silver prices fall to the next support at $29.56. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated worldwide, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold and silver. As Trump assumes office in January, political uncertainty is expected to persist, which could further boost demand for precious metals.

Cryptocurrency Market UpdateBitcoin (BTC) has failed to hold the $100,000 level, falling to the $95,000 region amid strong US economic data that dampened rate-cut expectations. Surging US Treasury yields and a simultaneous pullback in US equities triggered Bitcoin’s largest two-week decline. The recent ISM data-driven stock market selloff, coupled with Bitcoin’s strong correlation to the Nasdaq, has added to the cryptocurrency market’s bearish momentum.

Additionally, uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policy stance has added further market caution, with heightened US bond market volatility contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the cryptocurrency space. Investors remain wary as they await clearer policy direction from the new administration.

ConclusionOverall, gold and silver remain supported by safe-haven demand, while uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies could drive further market volatility. The cryptocurrency market faces continued headwinds from macroeconomic developments and regulatory uncertainty.