2025-08-01 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Fed Maintains Hawkish Stance, Gold Under Pressure

Fed Maintains Hawkish Stance, Gold Under Pressure

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9–2 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth time this year. The post-meeting statement carried a hawkish tone, further downplaying expectations for near-term rate cuts and weighing on gold prices. Although many market participants still anticipate the Fed’s first rate cut in September, Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that no decision has been made yet. Gold fell more than 1% on Wednesday, and during Thursday’s (July 31) Asian session, it traded near USD 3,285 per ounce. Additionally, strong U.S. economic data continues to dampen gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

From a technical standpoint, gold broke below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at USD 3,313, which served as a key trigger for accelerated downside momentum. After the FOMC decision, prices dropped sharply, with initial support now seen at USD 3,274. If gold fails to reclaim the psychological level of USD 3,300 in the short term, the next downside target is the 100-day SMA at USD 3,250. Unless gold manages to climb back above the USD 3,313–3,325 resistance zone, any rebound may still be treated as a selling opportunity. A break above the 20-day SMA at USD 3,333 would be needed to regain bullish structure and potentially retest the USD 3,345–3,355 range.

Silver saw a modest pullback on Wednesday, trading around USD 37.50 as the U.S. dollar regained strength, placing pressure on precious metals. Since reaching a 14-year high of USD 39.53 on July 23, silver has faced technical consolidation. The next key resistance lies in the USD 38.30–38.50 zone. A breakout above this range would be necessary to resume upward momentum. A confirmed move beyond USD 39.50 would open the door to challenge the psychological USD 40.00 level. However, short-term momentum indicators are showing early warning signs—RSI has slipped to around 50, and the MACD has crossed below the signal line into negative territory, signaling increasing downside pressure.

In the cryptocurrency market, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remain stable. July’s upward momentum has largely been driven by ETH, lifting overall market sentiment. Even amid minor pullbacks, significant capital has entered the market on dips. Futures markets are still dominated by long positions, though caution is warranted as BTC faces concentrated long-position liquidity near the USD 120,000 level. A failure to break through may trigger liquidations. A confirmed breakout above USD 120,000 could kickstart the next leg of the rally; otherwise, range-bound trading is likely to persist. Meanwhile, ETH continues to gain traction among institutions, with many banks and asset managers incorporating it into long-term portfolios—potentially signaling a structural shift in corporate digital asset allocation strategies. Disclaimer:

The content of this column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Investing involves risks. Readers should carefully evaluate their own circumstances and seek independent professional advice before making any investment.