2025-07-18 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Tariff Easing Pressures Gold Prices

Tariff Easing Pressures Gold Prices

Gold came under pressure as hopes rose for a potential tariff agreement between the United States and the European Union, dampening safe-haven demand. On Thursday (July 24) during the Asian session, gold traded narrowly around USD 3,390 per ounce, after falling more than 1% the previous day. With market concerns over worsening trade tensions easing, capital rotated out of the gold market, contributing to the price decline. Meanwhile, the general expectation that the Federal Reserve will refrain from cutting interest rates at the July meeting has also weighed on gold sentiment.

In the near term, gold remains influenced by two key factors: the outcome of U.S.–EU trade negotiations—where a breakdown could spark renewed haven flows—and next week’s FOMC meeting, where the Fed’s tone on future rate moves will be closely scrutinized. Over the longer term, unresolved geopolitical tensions, rising U.S. debt levels, and the looming risk of a recession continue to provide solid underlying support for gold as a strategic hedge.

Technical analysis shows that although gold has slipped below the USD 3,400 level, it remains above all major Simple Moving Averages (SMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pulled back slightly but remains above the midline, suggesting the broader uptrend is still intact. A firm close back above USD 3,400 could open the door toward resistance at USD 3,440. On the downside, if the correction deepens, support lies at USD 3,377. A break below that could expose the critical support zone between USD 3,350 and USD 3,340—where the 21-day and 50-day SMAs converge. A confirmed breakdown below this zone may trigger a steeper decline and erode investor confidence.

Silver, meanwhile, continues to consolidate near multi-year highs with a cautiously optimistic tone. Prices recently surged to USD 39.50, marking a 14-year high not seen since September 2011. While overbought conditions may limit short-term gains, the RSI remains elevated around 73, signaling robust upward momentum. The next target is the psychological level of USD 40.00. On the downside, initial support lies in the USD 38.55–38.25 area, which aligns with the mid-channel trendline and the 9-day EMA. Deeper pullbacks could test the 21-day EMA near USD 37.55. A moderate correction would likely reinforce the broader uptrend and present potential buying opportunities.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a mild pullback after reaching a new all-time high, yet market sentiment remains broadly positive. Although the RSI has cooled from overbought levels, spot trading volume remains robust, indicating sustained investor participation and resilient demand. Institutional flows are also gaining traction, with U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs posting notable increases in both net inflows and trading volume—highlighting growing institutional interest. Nonetheless, volatility may persist, and if prices rise too rapidly without solid support, gains could be quickly retraced. Investors are advised to remain cautious in the near term. Disclaimer:

The content of this column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Investing involves risks. Readers should carefully evaluate their own circumstances and seek independent professional advice before making any investment.