2025-06-27 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Gold Holds Steady as Middle East Ceasefire Tempers Safe-Haven Demand

Gold Holds Steady as Middle East Ceasefire Tempers Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices remained steady on Wednesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key U.S. economic data releases. The announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel eased geopolitical tensions and dampened demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in testimony before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, remarked that the impact of recent tariff increases on inflation remains uncertain, noting that such high tariffs are unprecedented. He emphasized that it would be prudent for monetary policy to proceed at a slower pace in times of heightened uncertainty. Although future trade deals may prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts, Powell's overall hawkish tone weighed on gold’s upward momentum.

Technical analysis shows that gold has successfully held support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around USD 3,325, a key short-term level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near 49, still below the midpoint, indicating weak momentum. A firm close above the 21-day SMA at USD 3,352 would support a continued recovery, with resistance near USD 3,372. Conversely, failure to hold above the 50-day SMA could lead to a retest of this week’s low at USD 3,295. Further downside targets include USD 3,250, and potentially the USD 3,210–3,200 range if selling pressure intensifies.

With multiple factors at play—including geopolitical developments and upcoming U.S. economic data—gold’s next major move will likely hinge on the outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations and macroeconomic indicators.

Silver, meanwhile, surged to a 13-year high on safe-haven appeal, attracting significant inflows. After rebounding from last week's low of USD 35.50, silver now trades above USD 36.00. The RSI suggests buyers remain in control, pointing to continued upside potential. If silver breaks above USD 36.50, the next targets would be USD 37.00, followed by resistance at the June 18 high of USD 37.32 and then USD 37.87. On the downside, three consecutive daily closes below USD 36.00 could trigger a correction, with support seen at the June 12 intraday low of USD 35.40 and the March 28 high at USD 34.60.

In the cryptocurrency market, risk sentiment improved following a temporary pause in missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. Bitcoin rebounded, reclaiming the USD 107,000 level. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows reach USD 46 billion, providing structural support for the market. Although short-term volatility persists, investors remain optimistic that Bitcoin could reach USD 110,000 to USD 115,000 in Q3. While its role as a safe-haven asset is still evolving, Bitcoin’s sharp V-shaped rebound from the USD 90,000 zone back above USD 105,000 in just 48 hours highlights its increasing liquidity and growing acceptance as a mainstream asset.

Disclaimer:

The content of this column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Investing involves risks. Readers should carefully evaluate their own circumstances and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.