2025-06-19 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Rate Cut Expectations Cool, Gold Prices Steady

Rate Cut Expectations Cool, Gold Prices Steady

The U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% during its latest policy meeting while signaling that two rate cuts remain likely this year. However, the market had been anticipating a more dovish stance, and concerns over inflationary pressures stemming from the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs have limited further gains in gold. On Thursday (June 19) during the Asian session, gold traded around USD 3,380 per ounce. While expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year remain intact, they are not yet compelling enough to drive aggressive buying. A sustained move above USD 3,400 is needed for bullish momentum to regain control.

Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel continues to create geopolitical uncertainty, providing gold with a measure of safe-haven support.

From a technical perspective, gold remains within a well-defined ascending channel, indicating a positive short-term trend. Daily momentum oscillators continue to show bullish signals, helping to limit downside risk near the USD 3,340–3,335 zone, which also corresponds to the lower boundary of the trend channel. A close below this support area could threaten the overall bullish structure. On the upside, USD 3,400 has become a key resistance level. If prices can hold above this level, a move toward the USD 3,425–3,435 range becomes more likely. Sustained buying pressure could ultimately lead to a retest of April’s all-time high near USD 3,500.

Silver continued to perform strongly this week, reaching USD 37 per ounce — the highest level since February 2012 — extending the upward momentum that began from the April lows. Although the RSI has moved into overbought territory, any short-term pullbacks may attract dip-buying. Key support lies in the USD 36.55–36.35 range; a break below USD 36 could signal a short-term top. However, if silver holds firmly above USD 37, the next target would be the USD 38 psychological barrier, with momentum potentially pushing further toward the USD 38.50–38.55 resistance area. A breakout beyond these levels could set the stage for a challenge of the USD 40 milestone.

In the cryptocurrency market, investor sentiment this week was dominated by developments in the Iran-Israel conflict. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the USD 110,000 level earlier in the week as tensions appeared to ease, but subsequently fell below USD 104,000 amid reports that the U.S. is seriously considering deploying advanced weapons to strike Iran’s underground nuclear facility at Fordow. The increased uncertainty has led many investors to remain cautious.

On the other hand, the passage of the Stablecoin Act by the U.S. Senate has boosted market enthusiasm around stablecoin issuers. Circle, one of the key players, saw its stock price skyrocket from USD 31 to USD 200. However, the sharp rise has raised concerns of a repeat of Coinbase’s IPO pattern — a strong debut followed by rapid declines — urging investors to exercise caution in times of market euphoria.

Disclaimer:

The content of this column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Investing involves risks. Readers should carefully evaluate their own circumstances and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.