2025-01-03 Sing Pao's Column (w/English translation)《真金白銀》

Gold Market Summary 2024 & Outlook for 2025

On the final trading day of 2024, gold closed at $2,624 per ounce, marking an annual increase of approximately 28% amid strong safe-haven demand and global central bank rate cuts. This represents the largest annual gain since 2010. As Donald Trump takes office as U.S. President in 2025, his policies may shift significantly, leading to increased market caution. Additionally, the U.S. Dollar Index reached a two-year high on Tuesday, while the 10-year Treasury yield posted its best annual gain in two years, potentially pressuring gold's short-term gains. The market expects economic growth to slow in the second half of 2025, with inflation remaining above 3%. A moderate economic slowdown combined with rising inflation remains a supportive factor for gold's steady upward momentum.

On the first trading day of 2025, spot gold saw a short-term surge, briefly touching $2,635 and rising $10 intraday. Reports of a terrorist attack in the U.S. and stalled ceasefire talks in Gaza contributed to increased safe-haven demand. With the Biden administration nearing its end, a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas seems unlikely, further fueling gold buying. The daily chart indicates gold is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern while maintaining key support levels. The recent rebound to $2,625, aligning with the 100-day moving average, confirms strong support. Both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to trend upward, and a breakout from the symmetrical triangle could determine gold’s next major movement.

Silver Market Performance

Silver also recorded its best year since 2020, rising nearly 22% throughout 2024. However, recent price performance has been weak due to sensitivity to interest rates and a sluggish global economy, creating significant fundamental pressures. On the technical side, silver has once again fallen below the $30 trendline, potentially forming a head and shoulders pattern with a downside target of $26. The daily chart shows the 200-day moving average currently positioned around the $28.70 level, and a break below this support could trigger additional technical selling, further eroding market confidence and increasing bearish sentiment. If silver prices fall below recent lows, it could confirm a classic downtrend pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Cryptocurrency Market Review

Bitcoin saw a remarkable 125% surge in 2024, reaching an all-time high of $108,000 mid-year. With the new U.S. president and Congress set to take office, the crypto industry anticipates a more favorable regulatory landscape. The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recently announced temporary relief measures for cryptocurrency holders using centralized exchanges (CEX), recognizing cryptocurrencies as property similar to stocks. This regulatory move is significant for the industry, although further details and clarity will take time to materialize. Nonetheless, this is seen as a positive step toward greater industry recognition and acceptance.