2025-10-31 Sing Pao's Column《真金白銀》(English translation) Fed Divided, Gold Under Pressure

Fed Divided, Gold Under Pressure

The U.S. Federal Reserve has delivered another 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to the range of 3.75%–4.00%. This marks the second consecutive cut since the Fed restarted its easing cycle last month, aligning with market expectations. However, the voting results revealed growing internal divergence among Fed officials. Chair Jerome Powell stressed that a further cut in the December meeting is not guaranteed, emphasizing that future decisions will depend on incoming data. The ongoing government shutdown has further limited access to reliable data, compounding market uncertainty regarding the Fed’s rate trajectory.

This lack of clarity and weakening safe-haven demand has pressured gold prices, which continue to retreat. On the 4-hour chart, the downward momentum remains intact. The RSI has recovered from an oversold 28 to around 36 but still sits below the neutral 50 line, indicating a lack of strong buying interest. Key resistance stands at the 20-period SMA around $4,041, followed by the 100-period SMA near $4,111. On the downside, a close below the 200-period SMA (approx. $3,937) could trigger a deeper selloff, with the next notable support around the 100-day SMA at $3,566.

Silver has rebounded to around $47.50 but remains trapped in a technically uncertain zone. Weak industrial demand continues to dampen the fundamental outlook, with speculative activity dominating the off-exchange market. Technically, silver found strong support near the 50-day SMA (~$45.50) on Tuesday. A breakout above the $48 psychological level may trigger profit-taking, with strong resistance seen in the $48.65–$48.85 zone. On the downside, a break below $46.95 could lead to a test of the convergence low around $45.55.

In the crypto market, the aftershocks of recent deleveraging remain visible. Weekly digital asset activity among enterprises continues to slump. However, following positive developments in China-U.S. trade talks, capital flows are beginning to normalize. A major step forward for institutional adoption came as Solana (SOL) launched its first spot ETFs in both Hong Kong and the U.S., attracting $800 million in inflows on the first day. Meanwhile, U.S. tech giants and crypto-linked stocks like Strategy and Coinbase are set to report earnings this week. As leverage unwinds and regulatory clarity improves, market participants are cautiously optimistic that the crypto space will gradually shift its focus back to long-term fundamentals.

Disclaimer:This column is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial product. Investment involves risk. Readers should carefully assess their personal circumstances and consult independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.